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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2023-08-05T14:16Z
Model Inputs: 2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=63.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=1044.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2023-08-05T10:28Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: (Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-08-07T23:00Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: 11.9 hr] Possible Kp index: (kp)90=3 (kp)135=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-REx with estimated shock arrival time 2023-08-08T21:00Z (Minor Impact) Parker Solar Probe with estimated shock arrival time 2023-08-07T11:00Z (Minor Impact) Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230805_102800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Note : Simulation and subsequent modeling assumes a source longitude for the CME of 63 degrees; any eastward deflection inherent in the CME may make for a stronger event at Earth than modeled. Submitted on 2023-08-05T14:29Z by Chris Stubenrauch A Notification with ID 20230805-AL-007 was sent on 2023-08-05T14:43Z |
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